Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.232937 4.972112 5.790132 6.760848 7.879582 9.126657 10.620292
2025-08-31 2.986511 3.945872 5.124051 6.669583 8.634922 11.041184 14.199983
2025-09-07 2.355112 3.433211 4.876406 6.930937 9.758321 13.486691 18.744344
2025-09-14 1.865303 2.962921 4.546056 6.963010 10.518438 15.505989 22.967070
2025-09-21 1.516416 2.600472 4.270806 6.981918 11.207110 17.456924 27.287199
2025-09-28 1.256009 2.309935 4.034062 6.990676 11.841235 19.359240 31.714468
2025-10-05 1.165129 2.275048 4.185693 7.617761 13.495475 22.965755 39.102704
2025-10-12 1.028800 2.130060 4.122101 7.864262 14.542223 25.706244 45.391338
2025-10-19 0.915741 2.003855 4.065869 8.104638 15.591700 28.540348 52.098066
2025-10-26 0.796220 1.840068 3.910580 8.134360 16.258344 30.774594 57.987144
2025-11-02 0.667682 1.630936 3.631674 7.883001 16.365645 32.020407 62.245903
2025-11-09 0.548521 1.416845 3.305640 7.485391 16.133451 32.608490 65.349209
2025-11-16 0.469213 1.279893 3.124093 7.367988 16.459250 34.310263 70.769091
2025-11-23 0.405120 1.166032 2.974653 7.298190 16.876593 36.239086 76.834327
2025-11-30 0.373362 1.127099 2.989426 7.592622 18.094046 39.865218 86.555985
2025-12-07 0.330804 1.049719 2.899103 7.631186 18.757519 42.428794 94.381809
2025-12-14 0.293209 0.977306 2.808061 7.653046 19.383028 44.969153 102.386227
2025-12-21 0.260115 0.910060 2.718147 7.663026 19.979463 47.500044 110.592370
2025-12-28 0.258397 0.938121 2.885539 8.345449 22.238213 53.846822 127.477752
2026-01-04 0.240070 0.909448 2.892928 8.613599 23.526824 58.157120 140.292469
2026-01-11 0.223161 0.881491 2.897617 8.874997 24.827868 62.610446 153.790094
2026-01-18 0.200756 0.829225 2.822556 8.907320 25.553744 65.803793 164.717188
2026-01-25 0.172576 0.748841 2.648263 8.634009 25.455883 67.051868 171.294013